REPORT (CLICK HERE)
HIGHLIGHTS • Global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d in June to 97.46 mb/d as producers opened the taps. Output stood 1.2 mb/d above a year ago with non-OPEC firmly back in growth mode.
Non-OPEC production is expected to expand by 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and 1.4 mb/d in 2018. • OPEC crude output rose by 340 kb/d in June to 32.6 mb/d after Saudi flows increased and Libya and Nigeria, spared from cuts, pumped at stronger rates. OPEC compliance slumped to 78%, the lowest rate this year, and was overtaken by the non-OPEC group whose rate improved to 82%. • For global demand, after lacklustre 1.0 mb/d growth in 1Q17, there was a dramatic acceleration in 2Q17 to 1.5 mb/d. For 2017 as a whole, demand is forecast to reach 98.0 mb/d, with growth revised up by 0.1 mb/d compared to last month’s Report to 1.4 mb/d. Further growth of 1.4 mb/d is foreseen for 2018, with global demand reaching 99.4 mb/d. • OECD industry stocks fell in May by 6 mb on lower imports of crude and products. Stocks are now 266 mb above the five-year average, down from 300 mb in April. Preliminary data show a moderate reduction in OECD stocks for June. • Benchmark crude oil prices fell by $3-4/bbl on average in June and remain close to their level when the OPEC output deal was announced. Sour crudes such as Dubai, Maya and Urals were all boosted by tight supplies. • Global refinery throughput is forecast to reach a record high of 81 mb/d in 3Q17, up 0.8 mb/d from 2Q17 levels. The US contributes half of the 3Q17 build. Refinery runs will decline seasonally by 1.5 mb/d from the peak August level to October.